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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still