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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd