Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
